Strong Crops Predicted

The Australian Crop Report for June 2024, published by the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES), presents optimistic forecasts for the nation's agricultural sector. The report highlights significant increases in winter crop production and sustained above-average summer crop production, reflecting generally favourable weather conditions across major production regions.

National Overview

In the 2024–25 financial year, Australia is expected to see a 9% increase in winter crop production, reaching 51.3 million tonnes, which is significantly above the 10-year average. The total area planted with winter crops is forecast to remain historically high at 23.6 million hectares. This robust performance is driven by favourable rainfall forecasts, particularly in Queensland, New South Wales, and Western Australia. However, some regions, including western Victoria, South Australia, and parts of Western Australia, have experienced lower-than-average autumn rainfall, necessitating timely rain in June for optimal crop germination.

Regional Highlights

  • Queensland: Winter crop production in Queensland is forecast to rise by 68% to 2.9 million tonnes, benefiting from excellent climatic conditions leading up to the planting season. This increase is significantly above the 10-year average. The total area planted with winter crops is expected to rise by 27% to 1.4 million hectares. The forecasted increase in chickpea planting is notable, driven by high expected margins and favourable weather.

  • New South Wales: New South Wales is also expected to see substantial growth in winter crop production, with a forecasted 36% increase to 15 million tonnes. The area planted is anticipated to grow by 10% to 6.1 million hectares, supported by high levels of soil moisture and a favourable rainfall outlook. Notably, chickpea plantings are set to rise significantly, reflecting high prices and good planting conditions.

  • Victoria: In Victoria, winter crop production is forecasted to decrease by 13% to 9.2 million tonnes. Despite this decline, the production level remains above the 10-year average. The total area planted is expected to stay steady at 3.6 million hectares. However, the dry conditions in May have posed challenges, requiring timely rainfall to ensure crop germination.

Crop Specific Forecasts

  • Wheat: The area planted with wheat is expected to rise by 3% to 12.7 million hectares, with production forecasted to increase by 12% to 29.1 million tonnes.

  • Barley: The barley planted area is set to increase by 3% to 4.3 million hectares, with a 7% rise in production to 11.5 million tonnes.

  • Canola: The area planted with canola is forecasted to decrease by 9% to 3.2 million hectares, with production expected to fall by 5% to 5.4 million tonnes.

  • Pulses: The area planted with winter pulses is forecasted to increase by 17% to 2.5 million hectares, driven by a significant rise in chickpea and lentil plantings. Chickpea production is expected to increase by 133% to 1.1 million tonnes.

Summer Crop Outlook

Despite an 11% forecasted decrease in summer crop production to 4.6 million tonnes for 2023–24, the overall production remains above the 10-year average. This decrease is attributed to a fall in planted area, although yields are expected to remain high. Sorghum production is estimated to fall by 16% to 2.2 million tonnes, and cotton lint production is expected to decrease by 13% to 1.1 million tonnes. However, rice production is projected to increase by 20% to 611 thousand tonnes, driven by favourable conditions in southern New South Wales.

The June 2024 Australian Crop Report indicates a strong performance for the agricultural sector, with significant increases in winter crop production and sustained above-average summer crop yields. The forecast highlights the importance of favourable weather conditions and timely rainfall, particularly in regions experiencing dry spells. These projections underscore the resilience and adaptability of Australian farmers in navigating climatic challenges and optimizing production.

Mitch Smart